Israeli and U.S. attacks have dealt a major blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The public, aware that the regime’s ambitions brought war to the home front, did not rally behind it. Nor have Iranians risen up in protest—and for good reason. Now, a paranoid and humiliated state is ready for talks, as it turns on its own terrified people. But the Trump Administration should resist dialogue that does not include opening a path to a more representative political system that gives voice to Iranians who do not want the present hostility with the West.
For decades, Western policymakers have underestimated Iran’s soft power, focusing narrowly on dismantling its military and nuclear capabilities in the hope that this alone would deliver peace. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion and U.S. bunker buster bombs on various nuclear sites on June 21 was the culmination of that strategy. But it is a failed one nonetheless. Even a nuclear-free Iran remains a grave threat to the region and the West, to say nothing of Iranians themselves.
Various approaches to Iran—isolation, containment, engagement, and maximum pressure—have failed to curb the regime’s malign activities. The Islamic Republic’s allied militant groups may be hobbled for now, but the regime continues to wield influence through Islamic centers, schools and universities, and mosques across Africa, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The Supreme Leader’s speeches and propaganda are available in eight languages on his website. This machinery radicalizes communities, recruits operatives, launders funds, and targets opponents abroad.
Iranians who want peace and prosperity have no say in their country’s foreign policy. The current laws and practices ensure, by design, that decision making remains in the hand of those loyal to revolutionary ideals and dissent is suppressed. Even officials inclined toward reform are unable to overcome these obstacles. Elections are tightly controlled, opposition is criminalized, political parties are banned, and dissenters—even peaceful ones are silenced.
Expecting Iranians to rise up during Israel’s bombing campaign was, at best, unrealistic. They have risen up again and again since March 1979. They were met with death, beatings, prison, and torture. My organization has documented the execution of at least 4,376 activists—including 175 children—following the mass protest of June 20, 1981. The regime has continued to violently crush protests ever since, including the recent Woman, Life, Freedom movement.
Today, Iran’s leaders are weakened and broke. Their legitimacy is at a historic low. They’ve lost regional leverage with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and Israel’s assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas. This hobbled position offers a rare chance for the international community—in consultation with experts as well as Iranian activists and victims—to demand concrete, verifiable steps toward genuine political inclusion.
What does that look like?
2. Tie sanctions relief and economic incentives to political milestones. Examples include the release of all political prisoners, the repeal of laws criminalizing dissent, dismantling bodies such as the Guardian Council that block free participation and dissidents’ access to media.
3. Engage and empower Iran’s civil society. This means sustained support for independent media, human rights defenders, labor unions, and women’s rights activists, among others. They are the West’s natural allies in building a lasting peace.
4. Be consistent. Past approaches—isolation, containment, or short-term engagement—have failed by focusing on weapons rather than people’s rights and the regime’s structures of control. An effective strategy is one that is innovative and consistent, aiming for long term rather than short term results.
Now is the time to do better than another nuclear deal. This is the opportunity to seek a lasting agreement that benefits both Iranians and the world, one that includes the majority of Iranians who reject a regime that steals their resources, isolates their country, and impoverishes them. Many Iranians have fought for this right, at great cost. They are relevant to any talks.